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Bracket basics

How often do upsets happen in March Madness?

Every year. Since 1985, the lower seed has won about one first-round game in three. Picking all favorites is not the safe play it looks like.

The first-round seed math, since 1985

GameHow often the low seed wins
12 seed vs 5 seedAbout 35 in 100
11 seed vs 6 seedAbout 38 in 100
10 seed vs 7 seedAbout 39 in 100
13 seed vs 4 seedAbout 20 in 100
14 seed vs 3 seedAbout 14 in 100
15 seed vs 2 seed11 wins, ever
16 seed vs 1 seed2 wins, ever

The 12-over-5 upset is the famous one.

It hits about one time in three.

The 8-vs-9 game is a coin flip.

In fact, 9 seeds win it a bit more than half the time.

The two wins nobody forgets

A 16 seed has beaten a 1 seed twice.

UMBC beat Virginia in 2018.

Fairleigh Dickinson beat Purdue in 2023.

More than 160 tries. Two wins.

That is the biggest upset in the sport.

What happens late

Upsets thin out as rounds go on.

Since 1985, 1 seeds have won more titles than all other seeds put together.

A 5 seed has reached the final four times and lost every time.

No 5 seed has ever won the title.

The lowest seed to win it all is 8.

That was Villanova, in 1985.

What this means for your picks

History is a guide, not a promise.

Every March writes a new one.

Five questions start it. You finish it.

Our picker opens on Selection Sunday, March 14, 2027. Five answers start your bracket. You can flip any pick. Free forever, no ads, no accounts.

Common questions

How often do upsets happen in March Madness?

Every year. Since 1985, the lower seed has won about one first-round game in three. The famous 12-over-5 upset happens about 35 times in 100 tries, and 11 seeds beat 6 seeds about 38 times in 100.

Has a 16 seed ever beaten a 1 seed?

Yes, twice. UMBC beat Virginia in 2018, and Fairleigh Dickinson beat Purdue in 2023. In more than 160 tries, those are the only two.

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