How to pick upsets in March Madness

Pick a few, in the right spots. About one first-round game in three is an upset, and most of them live in the same few matchups.

Five rules, from the seed math

1. Start with the 12-over-5 game. It hits about 35 times in 100.
2. Add an 11 seed over a 6 seed. About 38 in 100, since 1985.
3. Take two or three first-round upsets. That matches history without betting the bracket.
4. Stop before the late rounds. Favorites rule late. Keep your champion a 1 or 2 seed.
5. Never spend a pick on 16 over 1. Twice, ever, in more than 160 tries.

Treat the 8-vs-9 game as a coin flip, not an upset.

One low seed in your Sweet 16 is normal. Two is a story.

A worked example

Say you take two 12 seeds and one 11 seed.

History gives each pick about a one-in-three chance.

In a normal year, at least one of the three lands.

Your other 29 first-round picks can stay safe.

One landed upset beats every all-favorite bracket on that game.

How our picker does it

Our picker scores every team by seed strength.

A 5 seed starts at 24. A 12 seed starts at 10.

Your chaos answer hands the lower seed a bonus.

Turn chaos up, and the 12 seed can pass the 5.

Turn it down, and the favorite holds.

It is the same math as March, run by your answers.

New to seeds? Start with what a seed is.

Where to read more

For the full numbers, see how often upsets happen.

For the low seeds that run deep, see what a Cinderella team is.