Fill My Bracket starts a full March Madness bracket from five questions.
What is a chalk bracket?
A chalk bracket picks the better seed in every game. The better seed is the lower seed number: a 1 seed over a 16 seed, a 5 seed over a 12 seed. An all-chalk bracket never picks an upset.
126 days until Selection Sunday, Sunday, March 14, 2027.
Start your bracketWhat all-chalk scored in the last five tournaments
This site replayed the last five tournaments, game by game.
Here is what an all-chalk bracket would have picked right.
| Year | Games the better seed won | First-round upsets | Upsets in all 63 games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 42 of 63 | 10 | 21 |
| 2023 | 44 of 63 | 7 | 19 |
| 2024 | 43 of 63 | 11 | 19 |
| 2025 | 49 of 63 | 7 | 11 |
| 2026 | 46 of 63 | 8 | 16 |
Read each year in full: the 2022 backtest, the 2023 backtest, the 2024 backtest, the 2025 backtest, and the 2026 backtest.
Chalk wins most games. It never wins them all.
The best chalk year was 2025, with 49 of 63 right.
The worst was 2022, with 42 of 63 right.
Even in 2025, when all four Final Four teams were 1 seeds, 11 games were upsets.
No backtested year came close to a perfect bracket.
A perfect bracket is worth 1,920 points in the common scoring system.
See how bracket scoring works.
Why chalk falls short
Upsets are normal, not rare.
Since 1985, the worse seed won 341 of 1,312 first-round games.
That is about one first-round game in four.
An all-chalk bracket gives every one of those games away.
It also hands the title to a 1 seed every year.
That part works often: 27 of 41 champions since 1985 were 1 seeds.
See how often a 1 seed wins March Madness.
How we counted
The year lines come from this site’s five backtests, 2022 to 2026.
Each one counted all 63 games of that year’s main bracket.
The first-round line counts all 1,312 first-round games from 1985 to 2026.
Games between equal seeds are not upsets either way.
Five questions start your bracket. Your picks finish it.
The picker opens on Selection Sunday, March 14, 2027. Name your favorite and your upsets.
Common questions
What is a chalk bracket?
A bracket that picks the better seed, the lower seed number, in every game. It never picks an upset.
How many games would all-chalk have picked right?
Between 42 and 49 of 63 in the last five tournaments. The site backtested 2022 to 2026, and the better seed won 42, 44, 43, 49, and 46 games.
Has an all-chalk bracket ever been perfect?
Not in any of the five backtested years. Even the chalkiest year, 2025, had 11 upsets in 63 games.