How often does a 10 seed beat a 7 seed?

About 39 times in 100. The 10 seed has beaten the 7 seed 62 times in 160 games since 1985. It is the quietest near-even game in the first round.

The steadiest upset there is

A 10 seed has won at least once in 37 of 40 tournaments.

Two won in 2025.

Arkansas beat Kansas. New Mexico beat Marquette.

This line has not grown like the 11 seed's.

It was about as common in the 1990s as it is now.

Winning again is harder

24 of the 62 winning 10 seeds also won their next game.

That is about 39 in 100.

The prize is usually a game against a 2 seed.

Most 10-seed runs end there. Some do not.

How we counted

Counted from every men's tournament game, 1985 to 2025.

Main bracket only. First Four and Opening Round games are not counted.

The full table lives on which first-round upsets happen most.