How often does an 11 seed beat a 6 seed?
About 39 times in 100. The 11 seed has beaten the 6 seed 62 times in 160 games since 1985. Lately it is closer to a coin flip.
The 11-over-6 upset, by era. It is a coin flip now.
The recent pattern
Since 2013, 11 seeds have won 24 of 48 games against 6 seeds.
That is exactly half.
The early years were colder. From 1985 to 1999, 11 seeds won 18 of 60.
Nobody knows one clean reason. The wins are real either way.
Eleven seeds win again, too
27 of the 62 winning 11 seeds also won their next game.
That is about 44 in 100.
No other upset line keeps winning like this one.
Eleven seeds go deepest
Six 11 seeds have reached the Final Four.
LSU in 1986. George Mason in 2006. VCU in 2011.
Loyola-Chicago in 2018. UCLA in 2021. NC State in 2024.
No other double-digit seed has done it as often.
How we counted
Counted from every men's tournament game, 1985 to 2025.
Main bracket only. First Four and Opening Round games are not counted.
The full table lives on which first-round upsets happen most.
Five questions start it. You finish it.
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Common questions
How often does an 11 seed beat a 6 seed?
About 39 times in 100. Since 1985, 11 seeds have won 62 of 160 games against 6 seeds in the men's tournament. Since 2013, they have won half.
Has an 11 seed ever won the tournament?
No. Six 11 seeds have reached the Final Four, most recently NC State in 2024. None of them won the title.
More bracket basics
- How to fill out a March Madness bracket
- What is a March Madness bracket?
- How does bracket scoring work?
- What is a Cinderella team?
- When is Selection Sunday 2027?
- How often do upsets happen?
- Which first-round upsets happen most often?
- How often does a 12 seed beat a 5 seed?
- How often does an 11 seed beat a 6 seed?
- How often does a 10 seed beat a 7 seed?
- How often does a 13 seed beat a 4 seed?
- What is a seed in March Madness?
- What is March Madness?
- Has anyone ever had a perfect bracket?
- Fill out a bracket if you know nothing about basketball
- What is the Final Four?
- How many teams are in March Madness?
- What is the opening round in March Madness?
- What is the Sweet 16?
- What is the Elite Eight?
- How many games are in March Madness?
- What is an automatic bid?
- What is an at-large bid?
- What is a bubble team?
- What is bracketology?
- How many rounds are in March Madness?
- What is the NIT?
- What is a conference tournament?
- What are NET rankings?
- What is a bid stealer?
- What is the selection committee?
- What is Wins Above Bubble?