How often does a 13 seed beat a 4 seed?
About 21 times in 100. The 13 seed has beaten the 4 seed 33 times in 160 games since 1985. It happens most years, and it is still a clear step down from the 12 seed.
The 13-over-4 upset, by era. Flat for 40 years.
It still happens most years
At least one 13 seed has won in 28 of 40 tournaments.
The most recent was Yale over Auburn in 2024.
That is the pattern. One most years, none some years.
It is a real upset. It is not a coin flip like the 11 seed.
These runs end fast
Only 6 of the 33 winning 13 seeds won their next game.
The next game is usually against a 5 or 12 seed.
Even so, about 18 in 100 of these winners reached the Sweet 16.
Pick one 13 seed for fun if you like. History says one is plenty.
How we counted
Counted from every men's tournament game, 1985 to 2025.
Main bracket only. First Four and Opening Round games are not counted.
The full table lives on which first-round upsets happen most.
Five questions start it. You finish it.
Our picker opens on Selection Sunday, March 14, 2027. Five answers start your bracket. You can flip any pick. Free forever, no ads, no accounts.
Common questions
How often does a 13 seed beat a 4 seed?
About 21 times in 100. Since 1985, 13 seeds have won 33 of 160 games against 4 seeds in the men's tournament.
How is a 13-over-4 different from a 12-over-5?
It happens about half as often. The 12 seed has 57 wins since 1985. The 13 seed has 33. Both happen most years, but the 12 seed is the safer upset pick.
More bracket basics
- How to fill out a March Madness bracket
- What is a March Madness bracket?
- How does bracket scoring work?
- What is a Cinderella team?
- When is Selection Sunday 2027?
- How often do upsets happen?
- Which first-round upsets happen most often?
- How often does a 12 seed beat a 5 seed?
- How often does an 11 seed beat a 6 seed?
- How often does a 10 seed beat a 7 seed?
- How often does a 13 seed beat a 4 seed?
- What is a seed in March Madness?
- What is March Madness?
- Has anyone ever had a perfect bracket?
- Fill out a bracket if you know nothing about basketball
- What is the Final Four?
- How many teams are in March Madness?
- What is the opening round in March Madness?
- What is the Sweet 16?
- What is the Elite Eight?
- How many games are in March Madness?
- What is an automatic bid?
- What is an at-large bid?
- What is a bubble team?
- What is bracketology?
- How many rounds are in March Madness?
- What is the NIT?
- What is a conference tournament?
- What are NET rankings?
- What is a bid stealer?
- What is the selection committee?
- What is Wins Above Bubble?