Bracket basics

Which first-round upsets happen most often?

The close ones. Lower seeds won 333 of 1,280 first-round games since 1985. That is about one game in four. The 10, 11, and 12 seeds do most of the damage.

9 vs 8~52%

10 vs 7~39%

11 vs 6~39%

12 vs 5~36%

13 vs 4~21%

14 vs 3~14%

15 vs 2~7%

16 vs 1~1%

First-round upset rates, men's tournament, 1985 to 2025.

The full count, 1985 to 2025

First-round game	How often the low seed wins
9 seed vs 8 seed	83 wins in 160 games
10 seed vs 7 seed	62 wins in 160 games
11 seed vs 6 seed	62 wins in 160 games
12 seed vs 5 seed	57 wins in 160 games
13 seed vs 4 seed	33 wins in 160 games
14 seed vs 3 seed	23 wins in 160 games
15 seed vs 2 seed	11 wins in 160 games
16 seed vs 1 seed	2 wins in 160 games

The 8-vs-9 game sits at the top.

Nine seeds win it a bit more than half the time.

Most brackets treat it as a coin flip. History agrees.

The patterns behind the numbers

A normal year has about eight first-round upsets. The quietest year had 3. The wildest had 13.
A double-digit seed reaches the Sweet 16 almost every year. It has happened in 38 of 40 tournaments, and 17 years in a row.
The 11 seed is better than its number lately. Since 2013, 11 seeds have won half of their first-round games.
Middle seeds can win twice. Of the 11 seeds that won in round one, 27 of 62 also won their next game.
The top still rules late. One seeds have won 26 of the 40 titles since 1985.

What about the bigger field in 2027?

The 2027 tournament grows to 76 teams.

Twelve Opening Round games come first.

The winners join the same 64-team main bracket.

These numbers count the main bracket only.

Every rate starts at the round of 64.

How we counted

We counted every men's tournament game from 1985 to 2025.

That is 40 tournaments and 2,520 games.

There was no tournament in 2020.

Game results come from the public game-by-game record.

Wikipedia tournament pages, compiled in the march-madness-games-csv dataset.

History is a guide, not a promise.

Five questions start it. You finish it.

Our picker opens on Selection Sunday, March 14, 2027. Five answers start your bracket. You can flip any pick. Free forever, no ads, no accounts.

Common questions

How many first-round upsets happen in a normal year?

About eight. Since 1985, the count runs from 3 to 13 upsets in a year. The average is 8.3 of the 32 first-round games.

Do these numbers include the First Four or the Opening Round?

No. Every rate here counts the main bracket only, starting at the round of 64. In 2027, 12 Opening Round games come first, and the winners join the same 64-team bracket.